Reference toolkit
Choose the right tool for your case
Use the evidence register, opposing-case table and interview prompts when you build a case. Try the checks, then copy the tools you need into your workbook.
1 Take a first view2 Work and test3 Record your judgement
Build a case someone else can inspect.
Decision
Who is deciding, at what price, for what purpose?
Evidence
What is verified, assumed or still unknown?
Mechanism
How does the business produce sustainable cash?
Opposing case
What credible alternative could change the view?
Value and risk
What assumptions drive the range and downside?
Action and review
What happens next, and what would change your mind?
Evidence register
| Claim / definition | Source / date / scope | What it establishes | Limit / next check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid transactions / period | Record the original file or report | Separate count from unique customers | Reconcile refunds and exclusions |
| Repeat demand / cohort | Define who is tracked and for how long | Observed cohort frequency | Check promotions and selection |
| Sustainable cash / period | Accounts plus investment assumptions | Cash after stated needs | Check capex, tax and working capital |
Opposing-case table
| Preferred explanation | Strongest alternative | Discriminating evidence | Decision implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Write the mechanism | Represent the alternative fairly | Metric, source and period | What would change and why |
Questions for finance-leader interviews
Use these prompts when interviews are recorded. No guest interview or quotation is represented as already produced.
- Ask a leader what their initial thesis assumed and how price affected it.
- Ask which source changed the guest view and how it was checked.
- Ask how an apparently positive operating indicator hid a problem.
- Ask a guest to explain the strongest case against a position they held.
- Ask which forecast assumption mattered most and how it was challenged.
- Ask which trade-off ultimately decided the guest recommendation.
- Compare two guests decisions using the same questions rather than rank personalities.
- Ask for a well-made decision that lost money and a lucky success.
- Ask how the guest handled a loss and what reference point shaped their thinking.
- Ask which belief the guest held too precisely and how the process changed.
- Ask how the guest forms a view before hearing the consensus number.
- Ask what made it hard to admit a view was wrong.
- Ask how juniors can challenge the guest and whether the chair speaks last.
- Ask what evidence distinguishes patience from defending a sunk cost.
- Ask which repeatable practice improved the guest judgement after a mistake.
Section 3 jargon reference
Anchor
An initial reference number that can influence later judgement.
Assumption
An input or condition accepted provisionally.
Base rate
An observed frequency in a defined comparison group.
Break-even
The activity level at which the specified profit is zero.
Break-even attachment
Focusing on recovering entry price rather than current prospects.
Brier score
Mean squared probability error for defined binary outcomes.
Calibration
The correspondence between stated confidence and observed accuracy over judgements.
Cannibalisation
New activity displacing existing business rather than adding wholly new demand.
Causal chain
A sequence explaining how one change could lead to another.
Claim
A proposition that can be supported or challenged.
Cohort
A defined group tracked over time.
Committee
A structured forum for challenging and deciding a case.
Conditional conclusion
An action linked to stated evidence and conditions.
Confirmation bias
Selective search or interpretation favouring an existing belief.
Conformity pressure
Influence toward agreement apart from evidential merit.
Confounder
Another factor affecting the apparent relationship.
Consensus
A described common or aggregate view, with scope stated.
Constraint
A limit that shapes feasible action.
Contribution
Revenue less specified variable costs.
Corroboration
Checking a claim with additional appropriate evidence.
Cost basis
A historical cost reference relevant to records and sometimes taxes.
Counterargument
A credible challenge to the conclusion or a material assumption.
Decision journal
A dated record of reasoning, uncertainty and review conditions.
Decision record
Evidence and reasoning retained as they stood at the time.
Decisive condition
The fact or assumption that most affects the preferred action.
Disconfirmation
Evidence or testing that could weaken a hypothesis.
Discriminating evidence
An observation that helps distinguish competing explanations.
Disposition pattern
A tendency to realise gains more readily than losses in a studied group.
Dissent
A reasoned disagreement with the current view.
Evaluation
Weighing arguments and alternatives to reach a contextual judgement.
Evidence challenger
A role that tests material assumptions constructively.
Evidence register
A dated record of claims, sources, limits and verification.
Exit cost
A future consequence of selling or closing an action.
Expected return
The probability-weighted mean under specified assumptions.
False balance
Treating views as equally supported despite unequal evidence.
Feasibility
Whether an action can meet the stated practical requirements.
Forward-looking appraisal
Comparing available actions using current evidence and future consequences.
Framing
How a decision is described or presented.
Hindsight
Seeing a known outcome as more predictable than it was beforehand.
Historical high
A past traded price rather than a current valuation model.
Holding review
A reassessment of a current position and alternatives.
Horizon
The period relevant to the investor’s objective.
Implementation
How a decision is actually carried out.
Incremental
Additional to a specified baseline.
Independent corroboration
Additional evidence not merely repeating the same original claim.
Independent estimate
An estimate with its own explicit evidential basis.
Independent first view
A recorded assessment before group influence.
Indicator
An observable measure linked to a risk mechanism.
Inference
An interpretation drawn from observations and assumptions.
Information value
The usefulness of evidence for improving a decision relative to its cost and delay.
Justified adjustment
A revision linked to relevant changed evidence or assumptions.
Knowable
Information reasonably accessible at the relevant time.
Learning loop
Recording, acting, reviewing evidence and improving the process.
Loss aversion
Giving losses greater weight than comparable gains in a stated context.
Luck
Outcome variation not fully controlled by the decision process.
Material assumption
An input capable of changing the decision meaningfully.
Minority concern
A reasoned objection retained even without majority support.
Motivated reasoning
Reasoning influenced by a desired conclusion or commitment.
Moving the goalposts
Changing the acceptance standard to protect a preferred conclusion.
Opportunity cost
The value of the best relevant alternative forgone.
Overprecision
Expressing more certainty or a narrower range than evidence supports.
Premortem
Imagining failure before action to investigate plausible causes.
Probability
A stated measure of uncertainty with a defined event and basis.
Process quality
How well evidence, alternatives and constraints informed the decision.
Provenance
Where evidence came from and how it was produced.
Realised price
Revenue per actual transaction under the stated adjustments.
Rebuttal
An evidence-based response to a specific objection.
Reference class
A relevant comparison set of similar cases.
Reference point
The comparison against which an outcome is treated as a gain or loss.
Relevance
How directly evidence bears on the claim.
Resolution rule
How and when a forecast outcome will be determined.
Resulting
Using an outcome too strongly as the verdict on the preceding decision.
Review trigger
A defined condition requiring reassessment or verification.
Revision memo
A retained explanation of changes after new information.
Scenario
A conditional combination of assumptions.
Selection
The process determining which observations enter a sample.
Sensitivity
The output change from a specified input variation.
Shared error
A mistaken input or mechanism affecting several judgements.
Social information
What others’ views or actions may reveal.
Steelman
A fair, strong representation of an opposing argument.
Sunk cost
Past irrecoverable expenditure that cannot be changed by the current action.
Symmetric standards
Applying comparable evidence tests to opposing claims.
Target price
A conditional analyst estimate, not a promised transaction.
Thesis
A testable argument connecting evidence to a proposed decision.
Thesis drift
Changing the reason for a holding without acknowledging the change.
Threshold
A level at which the decision or outcome condition changes.
Trade-off
A benefit forgone or cost accepted when choosing an option.
Unrealised change
A market-value change before the holding is sold.
Update
A change in belief or action in response to relevant evidence.
Value gap
A conditional comparison between an estimate and price.