Why On Judgement
It’s time to make institutional-grade thinking accessible.
Conversations with people who decide for a living. The thinking behind the choices that shape portfolios, careers and lives.
The conversation. The decision. The learning.
Who we talk to...
...people who decide.
Investors, CEOs and technology founders with experience of making consequential choices.
What we talk about...
...the experiences behind decisions.
We go beyond the outlook to explore what they believed, what they weighed up, and what they got wrong.
How you can use it...
...to reflect on your own judgement.
Lessons and mental models to reflect on your own approach to judgement.
WHY NOW?
We have never needed human judgement more
More capital follows an index.
52%
of US long-term fund assets were in index funds at the end of 2025.
Index mutual funds and ETFs · share of US long-term fund assets
View data
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 28% |
| 2020 | 40% |
| 2025 | 52% |
The way capital is allocated is changing. Understanding the judgement behind investment decisions matters.
ICI · 2026 Fact Book, figure 2.5 ↗
Year-end data. Excludes money market funds and commodity ETFs.
Less time to adapt.
15years
average tenure in the S&P 500, compared with 61 years in 1958.
Average company tenure in the S&P 500 · years
View data
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 1958 | 61 |
| 1990 | 20 |
| 2026 | 15 |
Enduring success cannot be taken for granted. We ask how people decide when the world around them changes.
Apollo / Innosight · March 2026 ↗
Tenure in the index, rather than the lifetime of a business.
AI is scaling fast.
$3.6tn
worldwide AI spending forecast for 2027.
Worldwide AI spending · US$ trillions
View data
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8 |
| 2026 F | 2.7 |
| 2027 F | 3.6 |
As analytical tools expand, our question is human: what deserves attention, conviction and action?
Gartner · September 2026 forecast ↗
F = forecast. Rounded values; spending includes infrastructure, software and services.
Fewer first steps.
−46%
year-on-year fall in graduate vacancies advertised on Adzuna in July 2026.
Graduate vacancies advertised on Adzuna · July
View data
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.4k |
| 2026 | 8.4k |
We want to open another route to learning from experience: hearing directly from people who have had to decide.
Adzuna · July 2026 Job Market Report ↗
Rounded headline change. These are advertised graduate roles in Adzuna’s dataset.
What have you learnt that could never be taught?
On Judgement opens up the experience behind the answers.
The first conversations are coming soon.